Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 24,283
2 Arizona 23,130
3 New York 21,502
4 Florida 21,017
5 New Jersey 20,543
6 Mississippi 18,750
7 Rhode Island 17,746
8 Alabama 17,087
9 District of Columbia 17,001
10 Massachusetts 16,929
11 South Carolina 16,673
12 Georgia 15,403
13 Delaware 14,995
14 Nevada 14,913
15 Texas 14,547
16 Tennessee 14,371
17 Maryland 14,364
18 Illinois 13,965
19 Connecticut 13,895
20 Iowa 13,826
21 Arkansas 13,575
22 Nebraska 13,206
23 California 12,346
24 Utah 12,270
25 North Carolina 11,260
26 Idaho 11,085
27 Virginia 10,309
28 Indiana 9,791
29 South Dakota 9,767
30 New Mexico 9,603
31 Wisconsin 9,466
32 Minnesota 9,395
33 Kansas 9,328
34 Pennsylvania 8,981
35 Michigan 8,914
36 Oklahoma 8,745
37 North Dakota 8,176
38 Colorado 7,967
39 Missouri 7,769
40 Washington 7,524
41 Ohio 7,519
42 Kentucky 6,598
43 Puerto Rico 5,028
44 New Hampshire 4,789
45 Alaska 4,702
46 Wyoming 4,540
47 Oregon 4,221
48 West Virginia 3,529
49 Montana 3,457
50 Maine 2,876
51 Vermont 2,253
52 Hawaii 1,300

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Florida 427
2 Mississippi 392
3 Louisiana 372
4 Tennessee 332
5 Nevada 326
6 Georgia 316
7 Alabama 305
8 South Carolina 300
9 Texas 299
10 Arizona 289
11 Idaho 288
12 Oklahoma 279
13 Arkansas 259
14 California 240
15 Missouri 228
16 Rhode Island 181
17 Kansas 174
18 New Mexico 172
19 North Carolina 165
20 Nebraska 160
21 Alaska 154
22 North Dakota 153
23 Utah 142
24 Maryland 140
25 Wisconsin 139
26 Kentucky 134
27 Iowa 133
28 Virginia 133
29 Washington 125
30 Montana 110
31 Ohio 108
32 Delaware 106
33 Minnesota 106
34 District of Columbia 103
35 Illinois 102
36 Indiana 100
37 Puerto Rico 95
38 South Dakota 92
39 Colorado 88
40 Wyoming 88
41 Pennsylvania 83
42 Oregon 82
43 Michigan 75
44 Connecticut 71
45 West Virginia 68
46 Massachusetts 50
47 New Jersey 44
48 Hawaii 42
49 New York 31
50 New Hampshire 18
51 Maine 12
52 Vermont 3

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,778
2 New York 1,662
3 Massachusetts 1,244
4 Connecticut 1,241
5 Rhode Island 950
6 Louisiana 835
7 District of Columbia 827
8 Michigan 643
9 Illinois 604
10 Delaware 596
11 Maryland 575
12 Pennsylvania 563
13 Mississippi 525
14 Arizona 476
15 Indiana 435
16 Georgia 335
17 Colorado 317
18 Alabama 313
19 South Carolina 313
20 New Hampshire 302
21 New Mexico 301
22 Florida 294
23 Ohio 292
24 Minnesota 288
25 Iowa 270
26 Nevada 253
27 Virginia 248
28 Texas 235
29 California 225
30 Washington 215
31 Missouri 206
32 North Carolina 180
33 Nebraska 171
34 Kentucky 166
35 Wisconsin 158
36 Tennessee 147
37 South Dakota 145
38 Arkansas 143
39 North Dakota 139
40 Oklahoma 132
41 Kansas 119
42 Idaho 98
43 Utah 92
44 Maine 90
45 Vermont 89
46 Oregon 74
47 Puerto Rico 66
48 West Virginia 62
49 Montana 50
50 Wyoming 44
51 Alaska 27
52 Hawaii 17

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Texas 20
2 Louisiana 8
3 South Carolina 8
4 Arizona 7
5 Florida 7
6 Mississippi 7
7 Nevada 5
8 Alabama 4
9 Georgia 4
10 Idaho 4
11 Arkansas 3
12 California 3
13 Ohio 3
14 Iowa 2
15 Kentucky 2
16 Maryland 2
17 Massachusetts 2
18 Missouri 2
19 Montana 2
20 New Mexico 2
21 North Carolina 2
22 Oklahoma 2
23 South Dakota 2
24 Tennessee 2
25 Washington 2
26 Colorado 1
27 Connecticut 1
28 District of Columbia 1
29 Illinois 1
30 Indiana 1
31 Kansas 1
32 Nebraska 1
33 North Dakota 1
34 Oregon 1
35 Pennsylvania 1
36 Puerto Rico 1
37 Rhode Island 1
38 Utah 1
39 Virginia 1
40 West Virginia 1
41 Wisconsin 1
42 Alaska 0
43 Delaware 0
44 Hawaii 0
45 Maine 0
46 Michigan 0
47 Minnesota 0
48 New Hampshire 0
49 New Jersey 0
50 New York 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 138,692 1 99
Lake Tennessee 102,908 2 99
Lee Arkansas 99,131 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 94,477 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 90,673 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 29,557 113 96
Richland South Carolina 17,787 382 87
Orange California 11,107 850 72
York South Carolina 10,577 891 71
Pierce Washington 5,689 1602 49

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,020 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,399 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
McKinley New Mexico 3,041 5 99
Richland South Carolina 308 676 78
Davidson Tennessee 279 740 76
Orange California 185 1016 67
Pierce Washington 147 1179 62
York South Carolina 93 1505 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons